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Operational Outage, Ignition and Wildfire Risk Modeling at PG&E

Feb 6, 2026 • 11am-12pm

Details

Virtual Event
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Illustration of a log with a flame

Recording

Description

PG&E operates over 130,000 KM of overhead electric lines in Northern and Central California that can fail during weather events and present risk of wildfire ignition when fuels are receptive. Operational grid mitigations such as proactive deenergizations and sensitive relay settings effectively reduce ignition probability but lead to increased customer outages. Thus, it is imperative to deploy accurate operational risk models to drive daily decisions to mitigate risk. This talk focuses on our fifth-generation machine learning outage, ignition and wildfire probability models trained by coupling a WRF-based 30+ year climatology of weather, dead and live fuel moisture data with sub-daily fire occurrence and PG&E outage and ignition data.


Picture of Scott Strenfel

Scott Strenfel

Scott is a utility-weather and fire-weather subject matter expert and has been involved in utility operations for over a decade. He directs the Meteorology Operations and Fire Science teams at PG&E  and is the Chief Meteorologist during emergency activations. He leads a team of operational  meteorologists and experts in meteorological modeling, cloud computing and data science. His team is  responsible for developing, deploying, and maintaining meteorological and utility-specific operational  models (e.g., wind-outage and fire potential index) for operational decision making.  

Scott oversees and participates in internal and external utility-weather research projects and Chairs an  Industry Advisory Board for an academic-industry research collaborative. He regularly interfaces with  regulators and authors sections of regulatory wildfire mitigation and financial filings. Scott was recently named the SJSU College of Science Outstanding Alumni, was selected by PG&E employees and senior  leadership as the champion of PG&E’s Spark innovation challenge, and his team was awarded the  Margaret Mooney Innovation Award for work related to solar forecasting. Prior to PG&E, Scott worked  at Sonoma Technology Inc., and researched the efficacy of satellite-based fire detection systems and  modeled emissions from wildfires. Scott holds a B.S. and a M.S. in Meteorology and was one of the first  graduates from the San Jose State Fire Weather Research Laboratory.