Navigating the Chaos: Risk Analysis, Decision Support, and Community Hardening Frameworks for Catastrophic Wildfires

Navigating the Chaos: Risk Analysis, Decision Support, and Community Hardening Frameworks for Catastrophic Wildfires Presented by Matt Thompson, PhD as part of the 2026 FFERAL Lecture Series The escalating frequency and damage of catastrophic fires are accelerating faster than social systems can adapt, presenting disruptive and systemic risks. What was once largely thought of as a wildlands and wildfire management problem—leading to fire control as the solution—needs to be understood as one where fire is both natural and inevitable, and with a shifted focus to structural vulnerability and ignition resistance of communities. Layered mitigation approaches are necessary, blending targeted fuels management with home and community hardening. So too are risk analysis and decision support approaches that are credible, scalable, and transparent. This talk will review progress in unraveling this challenge, with a focus on work done in partnership with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.