Topic:  Predicting spatial patterns of conifer regeneration after severe wildfire: implications for restoration 

Time: May 8th, 2020 12:00 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)

Presenters: Kristen Shive, Save the Redwoods; Michelle Coppoletta, USFS – Sierra Cascades Ecology Program

In the yellow pine and mixed conifer forests of California, high severity patch sizes are increasingly thousands of acres or more. In these forest types, conifer regeneration is dependent on the proximity of a live tree to act as a seed source, and the dominant species generally don’t disperse very far from the parent tree. Large patches of high severity fire may limit conifer regeneration and increase the risk of conversion to shrublands and grasslands. The ability to forecast where regeneration is most likely to occur can support managers in the early stages of postfire management planning.

We used both remotely-sensed and field-derived datasets to build a spatially-explicit predictive model (POSCRPT) that predicts where postfire conifer regeneration is most likely to occur in these forest types. We will walk through the variables used to build the model and show model predictions from recent wildfires. We will also show how the model results can be joined with other relevant information into a brief that can be more widely shared with broader management teams